Pokers a funny old game. Most of us have been there havnt we?
Can't possibly run any worse than i am doing at the momentвЂќ. How can the saying go? At some point you will run worse than you thought was possible. I made a decision to put it to the test after my recent `bad` run and put some figures in to a variance simulator.
Below are the results when i put in my stats for the year:
Honestly theres not really much to concern myself with there however when I consider the results below and the fact that the largest downswing in those set of results is actually 18 Buy Ins then its plain to see that even with a good win rate theres still a little bit of room to suffer from a very bad downswing. The simulator also throws out additional results aswell namely the length of time a break even stretch someone with my WR can expect, and in this set of results the longest BE stretch is 25K hands. So again thats really something I wouldnt expect nonetheless it certainly can happen.
I made a decision to do the test for someone within the same amount of hands but with just a 2bb/100 WR and a STD of 75bb/100, the email address details are below:
As we can easily see the way some body with that WR can run is shocking. About a minute they can think they are the worlds greatest player and within a couple of thousand hands they can feel just like the worst. When it comes to down swings we're now taking a look at over 50 buy in swings which in reality will make a slight winning player quit the game altogether.With regards to BE stretches this guy could possibly be looking at 170K or so hands of playing BE poker which alone would be totally demoralizing. Therefore the moral of the story is that people should try to get nearly as good at poker as we are able to to try and stop the above or worse from happening. From my viewpoint I think that its clear that I must say i cant complain to how I have been running lately and I should just try and ride it out knowing that theres always some body a lot worse off than how I am actually running.